2011年10月28日星期五

Indian summer 'sparks cash spree'

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4 October 2011 Last updated at 11:05 GMT Sunny weather Record temperatures were recorded for October in England More money was withdrawn from UK cash machines last Friday than on any other day so far this year, thanks to the hot weather, the Link network has said.

Some £577m was taken out from Link's machines that day as daytrippers prepared for the warm weekend, it said.

This was the highest amount withdrawn since Christmas Eve of last year, said the company.

Temperatures in England reached record levels for October, with the mercury hitting 29.9C (85.8F).

Cash spending

There are 64,000 cash machines connected to the Link network in the UK - that is nearly all that exist across the country. The latest figures do not include withdrawals when a customer used their own bank's ATM, so represents about 65% of total withdrawals.

Under this measure, the £577m withdrawn on 30 September was 14% higher than the amount taken out of cash machines on the same day a year earlier.

The cash spree - and the hot weather - continued through the weekend. The £252m withdrawn on Sunday was 11% more than a year earlier.

"The good weather really seems to have encouraged people to withdraw cash in preparation for increased spending over an unusually sunny weekend - confirmation that the right combination of feel good factors can boost short term spending and that cash is a very popular way of paying for these kinds of goods and services," said John Howells, chief executive of Link.

Pay day

Other factors behind the peak may include consumers choosing cash over cards when buying things outdoors, and that more people were in the UK enjoying the sunshine than would have been the case during the summer holiday season when many families go abroad.

A week ago, some retail analysts suggested that the unseasonal weather could hit early sales of autumn fashions.

Friday lunchtimes are commonly the most popular time of the week for cash machine use, with consumers preparing for weekend spending. Last Friday came at the end of the month, at a time when many workers are paid.

Previous busy times this year included the Thursday before the Royal wedding and long bank holiday weekend.


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US nears South Korea free trade

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6 October 2011 Last updated at 03:19 GMT US President Barack Obama and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak The trade deal is expected to dominate President Lee Myung-bak's visit to the US later this month The free trade agreement between the US and South Korea has cleared the first hurdle four years after the deal was first agreed.

The House Ways and Means Committee has voted to advance US free-trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama to the full House.

The push for a swift approval of the deals comes amid a slowdown in the US economy and high rates of unemployment.

Backers of the deals said they will boost US exports and create jobs.

"With zero jobs created last month and the unemployment rate hovering around nine percent, we must look at all opportunities to create American jobs," said David Camp, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.

Tariff concerns

The deal with South Korea is the largest US trade pact since it signed the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994.

According to some estimates, it is expected to increase US exports to the Asian economy by as much as $10bn (£6.5bn).

Though the deal was agreed in 2007, there had been concerns in the US over tariffs imposed by South Korea on the US carmakers.

The two sides finally managed to reach an agreement on the issue last year. South Korea said it would halve its tariff on US cars to 4% and lift it completely in four years.

At the same time, US said it would also lift its 2.5% tariff on Korean cars during that period.

South Korea had also agreed to allow the US to export up to 25,000 cars a year that do not meet its more stringent safety requirements.


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VIDEO: China currency vote: US view

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3 October 2011 Last updated at 00:27 GMT Help

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2011年10月27日星期四

Experts debate eurozone options

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2 October 2011 Last updated at 00:06 GMT A number of ideas are reportedly being discussed to tackle the eurozone debt crisis.

These include a 50% write-down of Greece's government debts, strengthening big European banks that could be hit by any defaults by highly indebted governments, and boosting the size of the eurozone bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).

Here, eight economists discuss what they think will happen and what they think needs to happen in the eurozone.

Vicky Pryce

Senior managing director of economics at FTI Consulting and former UK government adviser

Last week's events, with all the market volatility, were a serious wake-up call to all international institutions and to policymakers. I think they've understood it and institutions will be set up in such a way to ensure future crises should be averted.

I think we will see a haircut on Greek bonds, a recapitalisation programme for banks and an increase in the size of the bailout fund - but you need all these things, they need to be part of a package.

Even with that, in a year's time Europe will still be pretty weak because the long-term problems will still be there - low growth and unsustainable debt.

What we have seen for Greece will have to happen elsewhere. Haircuts are inevitable for other countries too.

They have to rethink how you achieve faster growth in Europe. If you don't get back to growth then the debt problems will remain.

The next thing that needs to be looked at seriously is issuing eurobonds. That may well be what we need in the longer term to lead us back to growth.

Director, Centre for European Policy Studies

We believe a market-based approach is needed to reduce Greece's debt.

The EFSF should offer holders of Greek debt an exchange into EFSF paper at the current market price. Banks would be forced in the context of the ongoing stress tests to write down holdings in their banking book and thus have an incentive to accept the offer.

More widely, we argue that the EFSF needs to be restructured.

You cannot just increase its size because if Italy or Spain were to step out as a guarantor, that would leave France, for instance, with a share of 40%, which it could not sustain and would lose its triple-A credit rating.

It cannot work as intended, but if it were re-registered as a bank, which would give it access to potentially unlimited ECB refinancing in case of emergency, the general breakdown in confidence could be stopped while leaving the management of public debt under the supervision of finance ministers.

Iain Begg

Professorial research fellow, the European Institute of the London School of Economics. Currently researching EU economic policy, governance and policy co-ordination under European Monetary Union

The one obvious thing leaders should do would be to decide rapidly on a way of moving towards genuine eurobonds.

The Germans, manifestly, are very hostile to the idea, but it is a development that seems to have so many advantages that it ought to be pursued.

The trick will be to find a formula that deals with the "moral hazard" objections by introducing well-judged conditionality.

Economist at Open Europe, an independent think tank campaigning for reform of the EU

Greece obviously needs to restructure. It's looking at write-downs of 50% - that's a necessary step. It finally looks like the eurozone leaders are coming round to that.

But if it's not combined with recapitalising banks and other economic reforms it won't work.

In terms of the write-downs, banks will be able to absorb the hit because they should have been preparing for it for the last year. I think it would be necessary to use the EFSF to help recapitalise these banks and provide a backstop.

At the moment there's no clear pan-European mechanism for dealing with winding down a cross-border bank. I think we need a policy for what happens in this situation, a huge policy that needs to be detailed.

They also have to look at the different needs of the eurozone - for instance, interest rates in Germany would be very different to those in Greece. Those imbalances aren't going to go away.

George Magnus in a green shirt

Senior Economic Adviser, UBS Investment Bank

What I think the Europeans will choose to do is leverage the capital of the EFSF (currently 440bn euros) up by borrowing 5-10 times that from the market. They would then have the capacity to go and buy all of the sickly sovereign bonds that the banks are sitting on and swap them for bonds they themselves will issue.

I don't think it would be successful. In the short run it would probably be a bit of a tonic for bank stock prices and equity markets, but it doesn't do anything to solve the problem of the euro crisis at all.

I think you need a combination of three things.

These are: a restructuring template for Greece's debt with long gross periods - three years for the interest payment and 5-10 years for the principal repayment. That template might then have to be used for other countries.

Then, to stop Greek banks collapsing, you have to support the Greek banking system. And to stop banking contagion spreading to the likes of Italy and Spain, you need a banking recapitalisation programme.

And if the ECB said they were prepared to stand by and buy any amount of Spanish and Italian bonds, then we'd raise three cheers.

Anything that stops short of cleansing the European banking system will not be enough.

Chairman and chief economist, Lombard Street Research

The problem is that the Club Med countries - Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal - are not competitive. Even if they agree to writing down Greek debts and increasing the EFSF, that will only be successful in postponing the issue for a few more months. It won't stop debt going up.

For the euro to survive the only solution is for the Club Med countries to leave the single currency. I think Ireland could stay in the euro as, although it's banking system is a mess, it is cost competitive - exports make up most of its GDP - so it is possible to turn the economy round quite fast.

Holger Schmieding

Former economist at Merrill Lynch/Bank of America, now chief economist at Berenberg Bank

The probability that we will get a significant write-down of Greek debt as part of an orderly programme, with an immediate recapitalisation of Greek banks, and with further European support for Greece, has risen substantially.

The key question in all this is nothing to do with Greece - but whether upon granting Greece debt relief we can protect Italy from the market panic and prevent contagion.

The risk Greece will default is now above 50%. But Greece is highly likely to stay in the euro come what may.

I would like to see the ECB commit to being the ultimate backstop - if things get really ugly the ECB should buy more government bonds.

Professor of economics at the Graduate Institute in Geneva, specialises in monetary integration, monetary policy and financial crisis

Discussions about the EFSF are irrelevant. It shows policymakers haven't zeroed in on the crisis and what to do about it. The EFSF currently has 440bn euros. The amount we're talking about for Italy and Spain, as well as Greece, Portugal and Ireland could be 3.5 trillion euros.

I think that Greece will inevitably default, and I believe that Italy too will have to default, but I don't see a willingness in policymakers to accept that.

The ECB is the only institution that can stop the crisis. My solution is for the ECB to issue a partial guarantee on the existing public debts of eurozone governments, of say, up to 60% of GDP. It would allow governments to default but would create a backstop.


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Cairn makes strike in Sri Lanka

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3 October 2011 Last updated at 08:42 GMT Pipeline Construction The discovery of natural gas is the first in Sri Lanka for decades Edinburgh explorer Cairn Energy has made its first gas strike in Sri Lanka through its Indian subsidiary.

The offshore well was the first to be drilled in the country for 30 years.

Cairn India made the discovery after drilling almost a mile down offshore in the Mannar Basin, Sri Lanka.

Simon Thomson, chief executive, Cairn Energy said: "Cairn is delighted with this frontier exploration discovery, the first well in Cairn India's three well drilling programme in Sri Lanka."

Cairn Energy is in the process of selling off 30% of its 52% stake in Cairn India to the Vedanta Resources and recently won shareholder and Indian government approval for the deal.

The company's focus has moved to Greenland since it announced it was reducing its stake in its Indian unit.

However, it has had a number of disappointments after turning up several dry wells.


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Chinese demand boosts Yum profits

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5 October 2011 Last updated at 01:37 GMT Pizza Hut outlet in Beijing Yum Brands is planning to expand its presence in China even further to cater to growing demand Fast food giant Yum Brands has reported a jump in third-quarter profit as sales at its Chinese outlets continue to grow.

Yum reported a net profit of $383m (£248m) in the three months to 3 September, up from $357m last year.

The owner of Pizza Hut and KFC said same-store sales in China rose 19% during the period.

With close to 4,200 outlets, China accounts for more than 40% of Yum's profits.

"This tremendous sales growth, combined with our expectation to open a record 600 new restaurants this year, gives us even more confidence our China business model is as strong as ever," said David Novak, chairman and chief executive officer of Yum Brands.

Domestic trouble

While it continues to grow in China and other emerging markets, Yum Brands has been struggling in the US market.

The company said like-for-like sales at its US outlets fell as much as 3% in the third-quarter, resulting in a 16% drop in profit during the period.

"We're obviously disappointed in our US performance," Mr Novak said.

Analysts said the company was still suffering the effects of the lawsuit against Taco Bell earlier this year, over allegations that it used large amounts of additives and little actual meat in its beef products.

Though the company denied the claims and the lawsuit was dropped, it damaged Yum's brand image.

"They've got a job to do PR-wise to repair that," said Jack Russo of investment firm Edward Jones.

"It looks like it's stabilising and we'll get to the point next year where they'll be bouncing up against some easier comparisons so that will help," he added.

Yum said that it was planning to launch innovation and productivity initiatives in the US in a bid to improve sales and profits.


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Battle of the knowledge superpowers

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28 September 2011 Last updated at 11:04 GMT By Sean Coughlan BBC News education correspondent Giant technology cluster, Grenoble "Knowledge clusters" are being built in France to kick start hi-tech industries Knowledge is power - economic power - and there's a scramble for that power taking place around the globe.

In the United States, Europe and in rising powers such as China, there is a growth-hungry drive to invest in hi-tech research and innovation.

They are looking for the ingredients that, like Google, will turn a university project into a corporation. They are looking for the jobs that will replace those lost in the financial crash.

Not to invest would now be "unthinkable", says Maire Geoghegan-Quinn, the European Commissioner responsible for research, innovation and science, who is trying to spur the European Union to keep pace in turning ideas into industries.

She has announced £6bn funding to kick-start projects next year - with the aim of supporting 16,000 universities, research teams and businesses. A million new research jobs will be needed to match global rivals in areas such as health, energy and the digital economy.

'Innovation emergency'

Emphasising that this is about keeping up, rather than grandstanding, she talks about Europe facing an "innovation emergency".

"In China, you see children going into school at 6.30am and being there until 8 or 9pm, concentrating on science, technology and maths. And you have to ask yourself, would European children do that?

Maire Geoghegan Quinn Maire Geoghegan-Quinn: "The knowledge economy is the economy that is going to create the jobs"

"That's the competition that's out there. We have to rise to that - and member states have to realise that the knowledge economy is the economy that is going to create the jobs in the future, it's the area they have to invest in."

But the challenge for Europe, she says, is to be able to commercialise ideas as successfully as the United States, in the manner of the iPhone or Facebook.

The commissioner says that she was made abruptly aware of the barriers facing would-be innovators at the Nobel Prize awards ceremony dinner.

Instead of basking in the reflected glory of a prize winner funded by European grants, she said she had to listen to a speech attacking the red-tape and bureaucracy - and "generally embarrassing the hell out of me".

Determined that this would never happen again, she is driving ahead with a plan to simplify access to research funding and to turn the idea of a single European research area into a reality by 2014.

With storm clouds dominating the economic outlook, she sees investing in research and hi-tech industries - under the banner of the "Innovation Union" - as of vital practical importance in the push towards creating jobs and growth.

"We have to be able to say to the man and woman in the street, suffering intensely because of the economic crisis: this is a dark tunnel, but there is light at the end and we're showing you where it is."

Global forum

There has been sharpening interest in this borderland between education and the economy.

This month the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) staged its inaugural Global Forum on the Knowledge Economy.

Continue reading the main story Giant technology cluster, Grenoble

GIANT - the Grenoble Innovation for Advanced New Technologies - is an ambitious French example of a knowledge cluster, combining academic research and commercial expertise.

The classic examples have been in California and Boston in the US, and around Cambridge in the UK. Purpose-built centres include Education City in Qatar, Science City in Zurich and Digital Media City in Seoul.

There will be 40,000 people living, studying and working on the GIANT campus. Centres of research excellence will be side-by-side with major companies who will develop the commercial applications. This includes nanotechnology, green energy and the European Synchotron Radiation Facility (pictured above). A business school, the Grenoble Ecole de Management, is also part on site.

This hi-tech version of a factory town will have its own transport links and a green environment designed to attract people to live and stay here.

This was a kind of brainstorming for governments living on a shoestring.

The UK's Universities Minister, David Willetts, called for a reduction in unnecessary regulation, which slowed down areas such as space research.

The French response has been to increase spending, launching a £30bn grand project to set up a series of "innovation clusters" - in which universities, major companies and research institutions are harnessed together to create new knowledge-based industries.

It's an attempt to replicate the digital launchpad of Silicon Valley in California. And in some ways these are the like mill towns of the digital age, clustered around science campuses and hi-tech employers.

But the knowledge economy does not always scatter its seed widely. When the US is talked about as an innovation powerhouse, much of this activity is based in narrow strips on the east and west coasts.

A map of Europe measuring the number of patent applications shows a similar pattern - with high concentrations in pockets of England, France, Germany and Finland.

There are also empty patches - innovation dust bowls - which will raise tough political questions if good jobs are increasingly concentrated around these hi-tech centres. The International Monetary Fund warned last week that governments must invest more in education to escape a "hollowing out" of jobs.

Speed of change

Jan Muehlfeit, chairman of Microsoft Europe, explained what was profoundly different about these new digital industries - that they expand at a speed and scale that would have been impossible in the traditional manufacturing industries.

Governments trying to respond to such quicksilver businesses needed to ensure that young people were well-educated, creative and adaptable, he said.

As an example of a success story, Mr Muehlfeit highlighted South Korea. A generation ago they deliberately invested heavily in raising education standards. Now, as a direct result of this upskilling, the West is importing South Korean cars and televisions, he said.

Continue reading the main story
The triangle of innovation, education and skills is of extreme importance, defining both the problem and the solution”

End Quote Jose Angel Gurria OECD secretary general Perhaps it is not a coincidence that South Korea's government has its own dedicated knowledge economy minister.

Robert Aumann, a Nobel Prize winner in economics, attending the OECD event, also emphasised this link between the classroom and the showroom. "How do you bring about innovation? Education, education, education," he said.

But this is far from a case of replacing jobs in old rusty industries with new hi-tech versions.

Gordon Day, president of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, the US-based professional association for technology, made the point that digital businesses might generate huge incomes but they might not employ many people. In some cases they might only have a payroll one tenth of a traditional company of a similar size.

It's an uncomfortable truth for governments looking for a recovery in the jobs market.

Degrees of employment

But standing still isn't an option.

Figures released from the OECD have shown how much the financial crisis has changed the jobs market.

Shanghai graduation ceremony Class of 2011 in Shanghai: China now has the second biggest share of the world's graduates

There were 11 million jobs lost, half of them in the United States, and with low-skilled workers and manufacturing the hardest hit. If those losses are to be recovered, it is going to be with higher-skilled jobs, many of them requiring degrees.

But graduate numbers show the shifting balance of power.

From a standing start, China now has 12% of graduates in the world's big economies - approaching the share of the UK, Germany and France put together. The incumbent superpower, the United States, still towers above with 26% of the graduates.

South Korea now has the sixth biggest share of the world's graduates, ahead of countries such as France and Italy.

It means that the US and European countries have to compete on skills with these rising Asian powers.

But the US university system remains a formidably well-funded generator of research. A league table, generated for the first time this month, looked at the global universities with research making the greatest impact - with US universities taking 40 out of the top 50 places.

Their wealth was emphasised this week with the announcement of financial figures from the two Boston university powerhouses, Harvard and MIT, which had a combined endowment of £27bn.

"The triangle of innovation, education and skills is of extreme importance, defining both the problem and the solution," said the OECD's secretary general, Jose Angel Gurria.

"It's a world of cut-throat competition. We lost so much wealth, we lost so many exports, we lost so much well-being, we lost jobs, job, jobs," he told delegates in Paris.

"We must re-boot our economies with a more intelligent type of growth."

Chart showing graduate share

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